My Publishing Predictions for 2013
So spurred on by a conversation I had with a a friend a few days ago I have decided to share some of my publishing predications for 2013 to see what happens and if Im just that psychic.
1) i believe that B&N will face several take over attempts in 2013. Microsoft which owns some of Nook media will want to pull Nook away from the dying Barnes and Noble store chain and B&N knows that they can’t lest they will go under completely. Some of the major shareholders will want to sell Nook for a quick profit but i believe that Barnes and Noble management will broker a deal to sell Microsoft products in stores, Microsoft was playing with the idea of having retail stores like Apple, so putting lit displays and training one or two of the existing Barnes and Noble employees to sell Microsoft products helps both companies. This will also help them fight against amazon and will lead them to be in a stronger financial position going into 2014.
2)Barnes and Noble will flirt with closing some of their duplicate stores in areas without heavy readership and win cities where they have multiple stores in close proximity to each other. I also believe that they will start closing the stand alone stores, the ones not attached to Malls and super centers first, but I would be shocked if they close more than 10% of their holdings.
3) I believe this will FINALLY be the year that all ebooks fall under $5.99 each. The sales of e books priced over $7 has not been stable, those sold under $5.99 are far more stable.
4) I believe the ebook market will continue to skyrocket, going over 50% of the market within 2013 and will be a 65/45 split ebook to paperback within 18 months. I also believe stores like B&N will start having QR codes printed on the back of books, and on shelves that will allow you to take a picture and buy the ebook, Priced LOWER than the paperback from their store with 1 click. That way they can get you in the store with one book and you walk out having purchased 5 ebooks in addition to the one in your purse.
5) I think the partnership with Entangled and Macmillan is the start of the future. I believe there will be more such partnerships, most likely with Samhain publishing and one of the other large publishers. I believe that PUBLISHING will grow but that traditional publishers will start to shrink. I believe that Kensington will have a record year as well as Carina Press continued growth.
6) the Random Penguin merger will be epic. I believe they will start to dominate the market and I believe with Jane_I prediction that they will begin a subscription service for their their large backlists, that will be targeted to ebooks for Libraries and schools, so that they can have their entire backlists available to their patrons, for one annual fee. This will lead to libraries having more ebook patrons and will lead to more patronization of libraries.
7) I think that another social media reading service will begin to crop up threatening GoodReads, at which point they will finally get their act together and start cleaning up their site so that they can divest themselves of the headache of those crazies.
8) Publishing growth will be a result of self publishing books becoming more popular then being purchased by major publishers, and Â the growth of the e-imprints of large publishers. Carina Press, Entangled, Loveswept, Kensington, Pocket, and Berkley books will have banner years. Many of the others will struggle. Avon and Avon Impulse should have a great year if they begin to publicize their books more and begin to push their products out. They have some amazing authors they just need to make readers aware.
Well thats it for now… lets see how psychic I am….